We undertook the unenviable task of reading the proxy for every company under coverage (and one we don’t cover: TSLA).
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 77
Using Return on Invested Capital as a lens, we take a look at which companies and sub-industries capture the highest returns within the automotive value chain. We calculate ROIC across 27 companies within industries including dealers, OEMs, parts suppliers, aftermarket retailers, and service providers.
Wed after the market closed (call Th.), ORLY reported Q1 18 results. SSS of 3.4% were just above consensus/Wolfe of 3.2%, but significantly above a reset buy-side bar. EPS of $3.61 just beat consensus of $3.58 and our $3.60. ORLY guided to a Q2 18 comp of 2-4%, and maintained its full-year comp guide at 2-4%. Full-year margin guidance was maintained but EPS guidance increased as a result of the Q1 buy back.
Today (04/25/18), after the market closed, ORLY reported Q1 18 results. SSS of 3.4% were just above consensus/Wolfe of 3.2%, but significantly above a reset buy-side bar. EPS of $3.61 just beat Consensus of $3.58 and our $3.60. ORLY guided to a Q2 18 comp of 2-4%, and maintained its full-year comp of 2-4%. Full-year margin guidance was maintained but EPS guidance increased as a result of the Q1 buy back.
We believe the buy-side bar for ORLY’s FQ4 was ~1.5-2% despite weaker y/y sequential comps for Census Auto Parts and MNRO. ORLY shares are +5% YTD versus the S&P 500’s +1% gain. Initial after-hours reading is pointing to a -1% decline.
Most of you cover 50 – 200 stocks and therefore don’t have the liberty of being as into the weeds on every name – that’s our job. To help you do yours, we have created a comprehensive, but chart-heavy, guide to our coverage that is meant to have shelf life and that can be referred back to when you are ready to dig more into our coverage.
Auto part retailers were down -30 to -42% through August but are up +17 to 47% since. To gauge current analyst expectations, we surveyed buy side investors to sort out top ideas, relative positioning, and near-term expectations for comps. We also tackled contentious topics including weather, the impact of the 09-11 SAAR air pocket, AAP margin trajectory, tax reform, and valuation methodology.
The tax overhaul is adding a lot of complexity to fundamentals as investors and companies we speak with struggle to digest consensus expectations and current valuation metrics. We sifted through both Factset and Bloomberg estimates to calculate a bottoms-up consensus of ONLY analysts that have revised estimates on tax reform.
In our first tax reform note we studied numerous angles on tax reform. As a continuation, we are studying additional angles and also adjusting numbers and price targets (Exhibit 1). While we remain concerned of the long-term risk/reward of tax reform, near-term we expect consensus EPS revisions to occur as the rewards are easier to forecast than the risks.
- 1 of 8
- next →