Shares of RCL are down 23% since the peak back in January, and its forward P/E multiple has contracted by 28% from 15.2x to 10.9x mostly due to rising oil/USD and concerns about future supply growth. RCL has undeservedly been hit the hardest in the group, in our view, which we attribute to more exposure to the Caribbean. We think RCL’s valuation has created a very attractive risk/reward and we have three charts to illustrate our view.
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We’re initiating coverage of HGV with an Outperform rating and $48 YE18 target price. We like HGV because of its long-term organic growth opportunities, brand advantages, lower-end valuation, and clean balance sheet and prudent credit metrics.