We undertook the unenviable task of reading the proxy for every company under coverage (and one we don’t cover: TSLA).
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Using Return on Invested Capital as a lens, we take a look at which companies and sub-industries capture the highest returns within the automotive value chain. We calculate ROIC across 27 companies within industries including dealers, OEMs, parts suppliers, aftermarket retailers, and service providers.
Our 11th Annual Global Transport Conference takes place on 05/22/18 - 05/23/18 in NYC, and we have ~60 Transport, Airline, Cruise, and Auto Retail companies scheduled to present and/or host 1x1 meetings.
Ahead of AN’s attendance for 1 x 1 meetings at our Wolfe Transportation conference on May 23rd and upcoming competitor conferences we have put together a package of: a tear sheet, a segment level financial profile, 30 questions for management, and a scenario model.
This AM (05/01/18), AN reported Q1 ‘18 results. Revenue of $5.26B was in-line with Cons. of $5.24B and above our $5.16B. EPS of $1.01 met Cons. of $1.01 and missed our $1.08. Same-store used $GP/unit increased 7.6%, below our estimate of 14%. Same-store F&I/unit growth of 8.1% beat our 4.0%. AN shares are up 1% vs. a flattish S&P 500.
This AM (2/2/2018), AN reported Q4 ‘17 results. Revenue of $5.68B beat Consensus of $5.56B and our est. of $5.40B. EPS (ex. tax gain) of $1.19 beat Consensus of $0.92 and our $0.96. Asset disposals contributed $0.17 ($0.10 higher than our est.). New & used SSS units both beat our estimates, but SS Used $GP/Used-unit was down -5.8% sequentially vs guidance of up. SS F&I/Unit of +10.9% beat our +6.0%.
Most of you cover 50 – 200 stocks and therefore don’t have the liberty of being as into the weeds on every name – that’s our job. To help you do yours, we have created a comprehensive, but chart-heavy, guide to our coverage that is meant to have shelf life and that can be referred back to when you are ready to dig more into our coverage.
The tax overhaul is adding a lot of complexity to fundamentals as investors and companies we speak with struggle to digest consensus expectations and current valuation metrics. We sifted through both Factset and Bloomberg estimates to calculate a bottoms-up consensus of ONLY analysts that have revised estimates on tax reform.
In our first tax reform note we studied numerous angles on tax reform. As a continuation, we are studying additional angles and also adjusting numbers and price targets (Exhibit 1). While we remain concerned of the long-term risk/reward of tax reform, near-term we expect consensus EPS revisions to occur as the rewards are easier to forecast than the risks.
After years of inflating asset prices via credit let’s unwind QE, raise interest rates, meddle in regional wars, reduce homeownership incentives, rush a radical tax overhaul including reducing corporate taxes, rebalance personal taxes, and expanding the fiscal deficit, all during a period of trough unemployment. Let’s just throw all of the economic models out, nothing can go wrong here, I’m psyched let’s go shoot some birds
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