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LKQ hosted an investor day at its Tamworth DC pre-market on 5/31. 2018 guidance was maintained; though we thought clarity on near-term cost pressures/offsets was still missing and “cautiously optimistic” on EU Rev was less than we hoped for. However, given this day was planned before the Q1 blow up, we thought mgt. did a good job of articulating the likely original plan for EU integration, NA algorithm, and capital allocation.
Using Return on Invested Capital as a lens, we take a look at which companies and sub-industries capture the highest returns within the automotive value chain. We calculate ROIC across 27 companies within industries including dealers, OEMs, parts suppliers, aftermarket retailers, and service providers.
Copart reported FQ3 2018 results on 5/23 after the close (5/24/2018). Total revenue of $478m beat Cons. $438m and our $455m, as unit volume and ASPs both came in very strong with double digit growth. EPS of $0.52 also beat Cons. of $0.49 but missed our $0.55 (on tax). Operating margins were 100bps below Cons. estimates. Hurricane Harvey inventory produced a net $3.9m pre-tax loss in Q3. Shares were down 0.5% vs. a flattish S&P 500.
In the AM AZO reported Q3 2018 results. SSS of 0.6% missed Cons of 2.3% and our 2.2% as a short quarter/odd fiscal convention left it over-exposed to weather weakened Mar/Apr. EPS of $13.42 beat consensus of $12.95 and our $12.94. However, commentary on SG&A re-investments/wages/comps were alarming. AZO was down -10% vs S&P flat.
In the AM AAP reported Q1 results with SSS of -0.8% vs Cons of +0.3%/ our -0.5%. Adj. EPS of $2.10 beat Cons. of $1.97/our $1.90 as op margins of 7.8% beat Cons of 7.3%/our 6.7%. However, 50% of the SG&A improvement in Q1 was from deferred investment, which we estimate helped op margins by ~40bps and EPS by $0.12 as cost take-outs help to offset wage/transportation pressures. AAP -2% but peers -3% to -9% and S&P flat.
Our 11th Annual Global Transport Conference takes place on 05/22/18 - 05/23/18 in NYC, and we have ~60 Transport, Airline, Cruise, and Auto Retail companies scheduled to present and/or host 1x1 meetings.
Ahead of LKQ’s May 31st Analyst Day in London and their attendance for 1 x 1 meetings at our Wolfe Transportation conference on May 23rd we have put together a package of: a tear sheet, 30 questions for management, a financial profile, SOTP, and an annual scenario model.
Ahead of AN’s attendance for 1 x 1 meetings at our Wolfe Transportation conference on May 23rd and upcoming competitor conferences we have put together a package of: a tear sheet, a segment level financial profile, 30 questions for management, and a scenario model.
Tues. (5/8/2018) PM, KAR reported Q1 18 (Wed. AM call). Total Rev. of $951m exceeded Cons. of $923m and our $927m. Adj. EBITDA of $229m was in-line with Cons. but below our $231m. A 5% decline in ADESA EBITDA (on SG&A) was unexpected. Adj. EPS of $0.82 was above Cons. of $0.76/our $0.79 but tax helped $0.03. Shares were -1% vs S&P 500 of +1%.
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