Friday, Jun 14th, 2013
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper
comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CHRW, CNI, CNW, CP, CSX, EXPD, FDX, GWR, RRTS, SAIA, SWFT, UNP, WAB
Friday, Jun 14th, 2013
Total rail vols increased 0.2% y/y, decelerated from +5.3% and +2.9% the prior 2 weeks. Rail vols posted their slowest growth in the past 7 weeks as vols for the Canadians turned negative and coal vols also inflected negative. Vols are now tracking up 2.0% QTD vs. +1.6% in 1Q and about 50bp above our expectations. Vols are currently tracking the most above our expectations for CP and CSX, but modestly below for CNI and KSU.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, GWR, KSU, NSC, UNP
Thursday, Jun 13th, 2013
The USDA slightly reduced its production forecasts for the upcoming crop due to delayed corn plantings this spring. The USDA still expects a 21% y/y increase in total crop production, down only 70bp from its initial May forecast. The USDA also raised its expectations for high-margin grain exports which it expects to increase 19% y/y.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CNW, CP, CSX, EXPD, KSU, NSC, SAIA, UNP
Wednesday, Jun 12th, 2013
Below, we analyze transport stock performance during past periods of rising ten-year treasury yields like we’ve seen over the past month. Transport stocks typically outperform the market in the one-year period after rates bottom with the most outperformance from non-asset-forwarders and truckers. The rails are the one sub-sector that has historically underperformed in this environment. (pg. 2)
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CSX, FDX, GWR, LSTR, NSC, SAIA, WAB
Friday, Jun 7th, 2013
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper
comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CGI, CNI, FWRD, GWR, JBHT, KNX, PACR, RRTS, SAIA, UACL, WERN
Friday, Jun 7th, 2013
UTIW’s Net Rev. and EBIT declined 7% and 83% y/y in F1Q, both a little worse than our expectation but relatively improved from last qtr. UTIW reported its 2nd straight EPS loss and burned $67M of cash in F1Q, materially worse than a $27M cash burn a year ago.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group Tags: UTIW
Thursday, Jun 6th, 2013
UTIW reported a F1Q:14 (ending April) EPS loss of ($0.04) vs. our break-even est. and Cons. of +$0.03. Note that we have included $0.02 of ongoing severance charges but excluded $0.08 for a one-time valuation allowance on deferred tax assets (related to certain unprofitable operations). The ($0.04) loss compares with a ($0.16) loss in F4Q and +$0.12 in F1Q a year ago.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group Tags: UTIW
Tuesday, Jun 4th, 2013
FDX announced it retired 10 aircraft and will book a $100M or $0.21/shr non-cash charge in F4Q. FDX will retire another 25 planes in F14 and accelerate depreciation on 76 more aircraft. As a result of shortened depreciable lives, FDX expects depreciation expense to increase $74M or $0.15/shr in F14, but fewer aircraft should lead to net depreciation savings in a couple of years.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group Tags: FDX
Friday, May 31st, 2013
AAWW’s Analyst Day on Thurs., 5/30, included presentations from senior mgmt and a tour of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner production facility in Charleston, SC. AAWW noted signs of improving airfreight demand, expectations for new ACMI contracts and affirmed its full-year C13 EPS guidance, but provided no long-term guidance. Relative to previous Analyst Days, the biggest changes to us are AAWW’s focus on growing its Titan dry-leasing business and its commitment to buying back stock.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group Tags: AAWW
Wednesday, May 29th, 2013
LSTR hosted its scheduled 2Q mid-qtr. update at 2pm ET today (Tues, May 28th). LSTR now expects 2Q EPS of $0.63-$0.68 vs. its prior guidance of $0.68-$0.73, prior Cons. of $0.71 and $0.76 a year ago. LSTR materially cut its gross rev. expectation from a decline of 2%-4% previously to an expected decline of 5%-10% now in 2Q. This compares with -3% y/y in 1Q and our prior -2% estimate.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group Tags: LSTR