Friday, May 24th, 2013
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads Tags: CGI, CNI, FWRD, GWR, JBHT, KNX, PACR, RRTS, SAIA, UACL, WERN
Friday, May 24th, 2013
Transports with Most Momentum: KNX, RRTS, CNI, KEX sounded relatively best to us, and nobody sounded particularly bad
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads Tags: CGI, CNI, FWRD, GWR, JBHT, KNX, PACR, RRTS, SAIA, UACL, WERN, YRCW
Thursday, May 23rd, 2013
Transports with Most and Least Momentum: CP, UNP and EXPD sounded relatively best, and NSC relatively worst on Day 1.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads Tags: CP, EXPD, KSU, NSC, ODFL, UNP
Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
This month’s Macro examines March and April data. As shown on Slide 8, freight vols on avg. declined 2% y/y in March and are tracking up less than 1% y/y based on preliminary April data after growing close to 3% the 1st two months of the year. Moreover, our proprietary Seasonal Freight Index (Slide 7) has dipped back below 50 the past 2 months after accelerating sharply late last year and early this year.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads Tags: AAWW, ABFS, CGI, CHRW, CNI, CNW, CP, CSX, CVTI, EXPD, FDX, FWRD, GWR, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, KNX, KSU, LSTR, NSC, ODFL, PACR, R, RRTS, SAIA, SWFT, TNTE.AS, UACL, UNP, UPS, UTIW, WAB, WERN, YRCW
Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
the Teamsters announced that local union leaders unanimously endorsed a new 5-yr contract with ABFS. Details of the tentative deal are now available after surprisingly little information leaked since the initial agreement was first announced.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Trucking Tags: ABFS
Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
We emailed out a 70-page report reiterating our bullish TL thesis. We recommend buying TL stocks into early signs of tighter capacity and our expectations for capacity to tighten further the next few months and lead to stronger TL pricing into 2014. We also published a 60-page report on the rails and our expectation for stronger coal vols ahead. Bound hard copies of both reports will be available at our Global Transport Conference on Wednesday, May 22 and Thursday, May 23. If you can’t attend our conference, email us for hard copies of either report.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: CHRW, CNI, CP, CSX, KNX, R, SAIA, SWFT, UNP, WERN
Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
Natural gas prices have more than doubled over the past year and are currently trading back above $4.00/MBtu. Our conversations with coal-fired utilities indicate Powder River Basin (PRB) and Illinois Basin coals are now back in the money, and even Northern App (NAPP) coal is in the money for some plants. However, Central App (CAPP) coal will structurally remain uneconomic until gas rises closer to $6 for most plants. Based on higher gas prices, many utilities are reporting higher coal capacity factors versus a year ago. Utility coal stockpiles are also starting to come down, and coal production is ramping back up, and this should create a favorable backdrop for domestic rail coal volumes ahead.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads Tags: CNI, CP, CSX, GWR, KSU, LUNP, NSC, WAB
Monday, May 20th, 2013
We have been arguing that supply-driven pressures will keep truckload (TL) capacity tight, leading to both strong pricing gains and market share growth for larger, better capitalized carriers over the next five to ten years. While relatively little supply has entered the market, pricing gains have been constrained by a continued weak demand environment. We still believe the capacity situation remains tenuous and believe TL pricing is poised to re-accelerate materially upon even a slight but sustainable improvement in demand, or a tightening in truck utilization resulting from upcoming changes in Hours of Service (HOS) rules.
Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Trucking Tags: CHRW, KNX, R, SAIA, SWFT, WERN
Monday, May 20th, 2013
Our 6th Annual Global Transport Conference will take place on Wednesday, May 22 and Thursday, May 23. This report is a guide for investors attending the conference, including a list of suggested questions to ask each company and a snapshot of our earnings models.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: ABFS, ALGT, CGI, CNI, CNW, CP, CSX, CVTI, DAL, EXPD, FWRD, GWR, JBHT, JBLU, KNX, KSU, NAV, NSC, ODFL, PACR, R, RRTS, RUSHA, SAIA, SAVE, UACL, UAL, UNP, WERN, YRCW
Friday, May 17th, 2013
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Research. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Filed under: Airfreight & Logistics, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads, Trucking Tags: AAWW, CNI, CNW, CSX, EXPD, GWR, NSC, RRTS, SAIA, SWFT, UNP