Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
Friday Freight
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
Friday Flyer: New data on insider stock purchases; AMR labor update
Form 4s filed this week showed six of UAL’s top executives just bought over $2M of UAL stock, including $1M by CEO/President Jeff Smisek. This follows a 24% decline in shares of UAL since mid-July, the second biggest decline among major, publicly traded U.S. airlines over that time. In this note we discuss historical insider purchases and what this means for the stocks. We also provide an update on AMR’s evolving labor situation.
On Track, Week 32 Ending August 11: Rail Volume Growth Decelerates
Total Week 32 rail vols increased just 0.7% y/y, decelerated from +3.5% and +1.9% the past 2 weeks and the slowest y/y growth in the past 10 weeks as the rails had been benefiting from easy comps due to heavy flooding in the Midwest a year ago. Vols also fell 1% w/w, led by a sharp drop at CNI.
Inside Freight: Can Utilizing Cash Flow Become The Next Catalyst for CHRW or EXPD’s Stocks?
After materially outperforming other transports and the broader market over most of the past 20 years, high-quality forwarders CHRW (-19%) and EXPD (-6%) have materially underperformed YTD and in C11 into slowing net rev. and EPS growth and material multiple contraction from around 25x-30x forward P/E to around 20x currently. In today’s note, we examine 3 scenarios for CHRW and EXPD to begin delivering better returns for shareholders including (1) a large special dividend, (2) increased leverage for more aggressive share buybacks, and (3) raising ongoing dividends to a 5% yield, which would rank in the top 4% of the S&P 500.
Research Library
- Coverage List
- Consolidated Research Library
- Airfreight & Surface Transportation Library
- Portfolio Strategy Library
- Quantitative Analysis Library
- Accounting & Tax Policy Library
- Auto & Truck Manufacturing Library
- Airlines Library
- Conference Calls
- Interactive Doh! Models
- Ed Wolfe Bi-Weekly Freight Update