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According to published schedule data AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats) over the next three months (Aug-Oct) is down 2.2% y/y, unchanged from last week’s data covering the same period. This is the second straight week with no published capacity changes. Over the next three months, AMR’s domestic capacity is expected to decline 2.6% y/y, Latin capacity is expected to increase 0.6% y/y, transatlantic capacity is expected to increase 0.5% y/y, and transpacific capacity is expected to decline 12.4% y/y.
Evaluating Banks’ Earnings/Asset Quality (EQ). We use a combination of 15 metrics to objectively evaluate and score ‘Q2 2012 bank earnings and asset quality of 80 U.S. banks with market capitalizations greater than $750 million based on reported GAAP and regulatory filings. We use metrics, such as trends in loan/security yields, loan delinquencies, tax rate changes, and M&A earnings accretion and calculate an overall score of 0 to 15.
Inside Freight: FDX Moves Toward Headcount Reductions; RRTS, CGI and WAB Acquisitions; UPS/TNTE Update; Export Coal; GWR and RA Volumes; CHRW Buyback; ODFL
FDX announced it would offer voluntary buyouts to U.S. Express and Services (support) employees as another step in its broader U.S. restructuring. After speaking with mgmt., we sense total headcount reductions could ultimately be similar with FDX’s past restructuring in F04 and we continue to estimate around $1.00 of annual EPS savings from its pending restructuring, with the bulk of cost savings unlikely until late F13. RRTS announced the acquisition of Expedited Freight, a regional asset-based LTL carrier for $10M. We estimate RRTS paid about 4x forward EBITDA (before earn-outs) for Expedited and we expect about $0.03 of annual EPS accretion. This marks RRTS’s 2nd acquisition in the past 2 weeks and 9th since its IPO 2 years ago. Last week, WAB and CGI also announced small acquisitions which we discuss below.
Click through for a 5-minute audio brief with slides discussing:
Investors Remain On Edge In A Rising Market
-Large And Frequent Market Pullbacks Continue To Plague The Current Uptrend
-Investor Uncertainty At Multi-Year Highs Is Weighing Down Trading Volume To Multi-Year Lows
-Mutual Fund Cash On The Sidelines At A 3-Year High!
Revisiting The Threat Of Rising Oil On Equity Markets
-New Normal Fact: Oil Now Rises And Falls Alongside Equity Prices
-Higher Oil Will Eventually Weigh On Leading Economic Indicators… In 2013
-Hyper & Late-Stage Cyclicals Leadership Likely To Continue For Many Months And Remain Our Favorites
Eurozone Financial Conditions At 13-Month High
-Stabilizing Economic Data + A Lot Of Central Bank Support = Improved Financial Conditions
-Perceived Sovereign Risks (CDS) Abate As Eurozone PMIs Find Their Footing
-The Lagged Effects Of Lower Inflation Continue To Steer EZ Markets Upward
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