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EPS missed, but… we still expect CPA to grow earnings by at least 14% y/y in 2012 and in 2013. We also expect CPA to pay out at least 30% of 2012 earnings in the form of a dividend to equity holders, resulting in a solid 3% yield. Yet, the stock trades at a mere 8.4x our taxed 2013 EPS estimates – well below the forward multiple earned by the S&P 500 (which currently yields 2%) of 13x and even below CPA’s Latin American counterparts, which historically trade at ~14x forward EPS.
EBIT was in line with our estimate but CPA’s 2Q12 EPS ex-items of $1.32 was above our estimate of $1.30 on below the line items. The consensus EPS estimate in the quarter was $1.34. On an absolute basis CPA generated healthy results – its 14.1% EBIT margin was particularly strong considering 2Q is usually CPA’s softest seasonal quarter, but it also represents a y/y decline of 330bp despite a mere $0.09/gal in economic fuel costs and flat CASM ex-fuel.
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