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AMR pilot vote result expected today and we believe a consensus opinion is forming that if APA (AMR’s pilot union) votes to reject AMR’s last best offer, it lessens the likelihood of an LCC-driven merger with AMR. We disagree. We discuss this and more on other airlines in this note.
We hosted meetings in NYC with KSU’s CFO, Treasurer, and VP of Investor Relations. Mgmt was upbeat about near-term trends as vols finished strongly in July after avg. daily carloads reached an all-time record in June. Total vols are tracking up 6.5% QTD in 3Q, better than +4.0% in 2Q and modestly above our prior +6.0% estimate for the qtr. We believe KSU’s long-term growth story remains very attractive with numerous new growth opportunities in the U.S. and Mexico, but it continues to trade at a large valuation premium to the other Class I rails. We would recommend buying KSU on pullbacks.
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