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According to published schedule data from OAG filings, AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats, not ASMs) over the next three months (we now look at Aug-Oct) is down 1.9% y/y, an incremental 60bp lower from last week’s data covering the same time period. That is, a week ago published schedule data showed AMR was reducing capacity by only 1.3% y/y from Aug-Oct., so the level of cuts increased.
KSU reported adjusted 2Q EPS of $0.85, in line with our est. and $0.01 above recently reduced Cons. Our sense is expectations were low heading into today’s report given weak coal vols in the qtr. and the sharp drop in the peso. While KSU missed our underlying EBIT expectations, we see clear signs coal vols have bottomed, and intermodal and auto growth remains solid. We retain our Peer Perform rating on KSU given its strong growth story but high-end valuation.
Today we launched a stock idea generation tool “Senyek’s Stock Ideas Spreadsheet” based on three important areas of our investment analysis and research: capital creation/allocation, earnings quality, and valuation.
Click through for this week’s 5-minute audio brief with slides:
The End Of The Soft Patch And What It Means For Financial Markets
-Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Indices Look Set To Embark On An Uptrend
-European PMIs, Initial Claims, ECRI Already Show Improvement
-Keep An Eye On PMIs (Leading), Not On Q2 Earnings (Lagging)
Sentiment Watch: Investors Remain Positioned For A Bear Market
-Investors Maintain A Preference For Defense … Even In The Face Of A Strong Rally In Equities
-Trade-Off Between Stocks And Bonds At Historical Extremes (i.e., Stocks Are Cheap)
-Better Economic Data Combined With Depressed Sentiment … Recipe For A ‘Risk-On’ Rally?
Economic Data Watch: Prospects For U.S. & Global PMIs
-Real-Time Proxies Of The ISM Point To An Uptick Thus Far In July
-Empire Fed Index Up In July … Philly Fed On Deck This Thursday
-Keep An Eye On Claims Thursday At 8:30 And The ECRI Friday At 10:30
JBHT reported 2Q EPS in line with Cons. and $0.01 above our expectation, as better than expected Intermodal and Truck results were partially offset by weaker Brokerage performance and a higher share count. JBHT has outperformed materially YTD, and with forward estimates unlikely to rise out of in-line 2Q results, we wouldn’t be surprised if the stock takes a near-term pause. Still, we believe 13% intermodal growth and 26% EPS growth are solid and we would recommend adding to positions on pullbacks as we believe JBHT remains the best way to play secular intermodal growth tailwinds.
Click through for my bi-monthly freight audio clip. Today’s brief focuses on two subjects, how the transport stocks historically perform after ISM dips below 50, as it did for July and a look at the increasing adaption of shippers and truckers towards natural gas powered trucks. In our recent survey over 35% of private fleets are already testing natural gas trucks and our private fleet respondents expect that by the end of 2015 natural gas trucks will comprise about 5% of their total truck fleets. That implies about 10% of all Class 8 Truck orders in 2015 will be for natural gas trucks, relative to less than 1% today.
What are the impediments and drivers for adaption of natural gas powered trucks? Which technologies offer the quickest returns? Who might eventually be the biggest winners from this trend? How does the past few weeks impact of rising natural gas prices and falling diesel fuel prices impact one’s potential return on investment?
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