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Earnings season kicks off with JBHT on Monday afternoon, and today we are updating our TL, LTL and Intermodal estimates. We expect in-line reports to modest beats for TLs as lower fuel seems likely to offset weaker than expected vols in the qtr. We also generally expect modest LTL beats, although expectations are tougher following strong 1Q beats. We are slightly below Cons. for Intermodal reports as we don’t expect large fuel tailwinds.
Inside Freight: UPS Announces Delay in TNT Acquisition, New AAWW Military Contract, GWR June Volumes, Export Coal, Reduced Grain Expectations, More LTL GRIs, R
UPS announced that the European Commission did not grant Phase I approval of its pending acquisition of TNTE. Since UPS must now move to Phase II approval, which can take up to 25 weeks, UPS now expects its TNTE acquisition to close in 4Q:12 relative to our prior expectations of early Sept. We believe UPS will ultimately receive EU approval and close the TNTE deal, but we now suspect it could face more material divestitures than initially expected. AAWW was awarded a large 4-yr contract to move cargo for the U.S. Military, but the company did not issue a press release. The contract could be worth $2.9B of total rev. over 4 years, split by AAWW and 2 other carriers. Assuming an equal rev. split and a 5% margin implies about $0.25 of annual EPS for AAWW, but these assumptions seem very rough.
The level of the WTLEI declined slightly in what turned out to be a relatively flat week for U.S. equities. Last week was a quiet one for PMI reports as the first July PMI (the Empire Fed) will be released today at 8:30 ET. This week will also bring the second July PMI report (the Philly Fed) on Thursday at 10:00 ET. Stay tuned!
The decline in last week’s WTLEI reading was mainly driven by weakness in the Market and Economic components. A decline in global cyclical equities and a weaker policy outlook weighed on the overall WTLEI. Housing activity was the strongest subcomponent of the index, followed closely by employment data. Sentiment remained relatively flat for the week.
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