Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
SAVE: No surprises from investor update
June traffic was accompanied by fresh guidance for 2Q12, and various offsets in the P&L resulted in no change to our 2Q12 EPS estimate of $0.47. Note this is still a penny below consensus. Our full year 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates are unchanged.
Wolfe Trahan Airline Quarterly
Following the release of mixed June traffic data we are tweaking our estimates for airlines ahead of what should be a relatively quiet 2Q earnings period. We expect a bit of qualitative commentary on 2013 capacity plans, upbeat but cautious descriptions of booking patterns, and possibly a modestly-sized narrowbody aircraft order from UAL. Considering the state of the global economy and the volatility of fuel prices, boring is the new exciting for U.S. airlines, a sector that we continue to rate Market Overweight.
ALK: Upgrading ALK to Outperform
Today we are upgrading ALK to Outperform from Peer Perform and establishing an upside target price of $45, which is based on an 8x multiple applied on our new 2013 EPS estimate of $5.57. We wrote about this in detail in our Wolfe Trahan Airline Quarterly, also published today.
The Wolfe Monthly Macro Watch: Freight a Little Slower than Expected But Still Consistent
This month’s Macro examines May and June data. As shown on Slide 7, domestic freight vols (Rail vols, Cass shipments, ATA truck tonnage, A4A air tonnage) generally improved y/y in May compared with April, but June data points so far are mixed as rail vols strengthened further but the broad-based Cass shipment index inflected negative y/y. Our proprietary Seasonal Freight Index ( Slide 8 ) improved modestly in May and has held in a range of 49-51 for 8 straight months and 16 of the past 17, indicating normal freight seasonality
Research Library
- Coverage List
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- Airlines Library
- Conference Calls
- Interactive Doh! Models
- Ed Wolfe Bi-Weekly Freight Update