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Inside Freight: 2Q:12 Rail Earnings Preview

Filed under: Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Ed Wolfe & Scott Group, Railroads

The large-cap rails beat expectations by 14% on avg. in 1Q, but 2Q Cons. estimates for the group have come down modestly since then the past 3 months. While coal vols have weakened further in 2Q and easy weather comps have normalized, fuel prices have come down materially. We are raising our 2Q EPS estimates on avg. by 4% for the large-cap rails (ex-CP) and we are now 2% above Cons. We expect the best report vs. expectations for UNP and the worst report for CP following a 9-day strike in June.

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