Research Library
Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
ABFS 2Q Initial Thoughts
Ex. one-time gains and acquisition costs, ABFS reported $0.18 of ongoing EPS in 2Q vs. Cons. $0.17, our $0.20 est. and $0.21 a year ago. This excludes a $0.31 one-time tax benefit and $0.05 of acquisition costs for the Panther deal which closed on 6/15. Total book value of $18 at the end of 2Q increased modestly from 1Q. However, excluding about $80M of goodwill associated with Panther, tangible book value fell from $18 to $15 at the end of 2Q. This is still 22% above ABFS’s closing price and we don’t expect book value to drop further the rest of the year as we expect ABFS to remain profitable.
The AMR Bankruptcy Capacity Monitor
According to published schedule data AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats) over the next three months (Aug-Oct) is down 2.2% y/y, an incremental 30bp lower from last week’s data covering the same period. That is, a week ago published schedule data showed AMR was reducing capacity by only 1.9% y/y from Aug-Oct., so the level of cuts increased. The incremental changes are on domestic routes. AMR’s domestic capacity is now expected to decline 2.6% y/y (vs. -2.3% y/y prior). Meanwhile all other regions were in line with data from last week. Latin capacity is expected to increase 0.6% y/y, transatlantic capacity is expected to increase 0.5% y/y, and transpacific capacity is expected to decline 12.4% y/y.
TNTE 2Q Earnings: 2Q Above our Expectation on Cost Cuts and Currency Benefit
TNTE reported adj. 2Q EPS of €0.08, above our expectations of €0.06 and €0.07 a year ago. Despite the EU regulatory delay, we still expect UPS’s acquisition of TNTE to close in late 4Q or early C13. This implies 7% upside over the next 5 months (14% annualized) to reach the €9.50 buyout price and we reiterate our OP rating. However, we are lowering our target price from €10 to €9.50 as we don’t expect a competing offer to emerge.
CGI F4Q Earnings: Another TL Beat on Weaker Revenue But Better Margins
CGI reported F4Q EPS of $0.39 vs. Cons. $0.32, our high-end $0.34 est. and $0.24 a year ago. Similar with the other TLs in 2Q, CGI reported weaker rev. than we expected but better margins including a large y/y fuel benefit. CGI’s acquisitions are yielding high-end growth currently among the TLs and we remain bullish on long-term TL fundamentals. The stock seems more attractive after its recent pullback, but we retain our Peer Perform rating for now following strong outperformance YTD and with signs of more material driver pressures vs. other TLs which could pressure CGI unless it can find more acquisitions.
A 5-Minute Portfolio Strategy Update With Francois Trahan – July 31, 2012
Click through for a 5-minute audio brief with slides discussing:
Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting: To Tease Or To Ease?
Economic Data Not Supportive Of Further Fed Action
Rebound In Housing, Sentiment, And Equities Puts Low Odds On QE3
Today’s Backdrop Is Unlike Prior Periods Of Central Bank Easing
Economic Data Watch: A Look At The Likelihood Of An ISM Uptick This Month
Positive Data Points Of Late Suggest We May Be Emerging From The Soft Patch
Domestic And International Anticipatory Indicators Are Pointing Up!
Stay Tuned For The July ISM Manufacturing Report Tomorrow At 10 AM ET
ALGT: A319 acquisition: yet another risk/reward for ALGT
One of the most intriguing characteristics of ALGT, in our view, is management’s appetite for prudent, commercial risk taking. And today’s announcement that the company will acquire 19 A319 aircraft through 2015, using a mix of operating (nine) and capital (ten) leases, is yet another illustration of this. Considering management owns ~21% of ALGT stock, investors should feel comfortable that new ventures are not entered into lightly and/or without one ultimate outcome in mind: will this decision create shareholder value? We think this will.
SAIA 2Q Earnings: Another Impressive Report; Materially Raising our EPS Estimates
SAIA reported 2Q EPS of $0.72, more than 40% above Cons. and improved about 250% vs. a year ago, driven by 430bp of OR improvement. Following ODFL, SAIA has clearly differentiated itself for consistent financial performance among the public LTLs the past 2 years and we believe it’s the most likely LTL to reach new peak margins this cycle with an ability to grow, build density and expand margins off a relatively low base. We reiterate our OP rating and $29 target price.
Sunday Driver: July NA Truck Orders & US Auto Sales, 2Q Europe Truck Orders, June Germany Freight, China NS4
Expectations from various sources (Ward’s, KBB, JD Power, Truecar.com) range from 14.0M-14.1M for July U.S. light vehicle sales, to be reported Thursday, August 2nd. This compares to 14.1 in June, 14.3M YTD thru June, and our 14.4M 2012 forecast
Key Themes: Chart Book
Our chart book tracks the year-to-date share price performance of a basket of stocks relative to a sector neutral index return for our important themes. We hope this report stimulates thought in this and other areas.
Research Library
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- Ed Wolfe Bi-Weekly Freight Update