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- Total Week 25 rail vols increased 3.9% y/y, above +2.3% and +2.9% the prior 2 weeks and the best y/y growth in 20 weeks. Vols ex-coal improved 5.3% y/y, similar with the past 2 weeks. Overall rail vols are now tracking up 1.0% QTD with 1 week of data remaining, in line with our expectations for the qtr.
UAL’s 2Q12 PRASM and CASM ex-fuel guidance both came in line with our estimate, but slightly better fuel expense/gal and much better ancillary revenue offset a likely FX headwind for a $0.01 increase to our 2Q EPS estimate. We are increasing our full year estimates by a larger degree due to better than expected fuel costs. UAL’s downside participation in fuel prices was better than we thought given the company’s hedging policy (UAL’s hedges are almost entirely collar positions, which create floors that are now mostly underwater).
Inside Freight: Deal Reached on New Highway Bill, Grain Update, Rail Headcount, CP, SWFT, More LTL GRIs
Congress reached a settlement on a new 2-year highway reauthorization bill. The bill mandates electronic recorders for truckers, and we believe this is a material long-term positive for large TL carriers relative to smaller carriers. Unlike our earlier expectations, the bill seemingly does not authorize a delay in Positive Train Control or implement any other regulatory changes for the rails. Also in the note we discuss grain update, rail headcount, CP, SWFT, & more LTL GRIs.
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