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According to published schedule data from OAG filings, AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats, not ASMs) over the next three months (July-September) is down 2.3% y/y, an incremental 45bp lower than the schedule data from last week. Recall two weeks ago AMR noted it would reduce its July schedule by 1pp due to a large number of pilots calling in sick. We wrote about this last week but the capacity cuts are just now showing up in schedule data. The cuts are specifically attributable to changes in AMR’s domestic capacity.
We studied the components of variable pay in current proxy statements and summarized the incentives for airline CEOs, including both short term and long term components, and compared them to 2007 proxy statements to see (1) which airlines incent their CEOs using return-oriented metrics, and (2) which airlines changed incentives as the industry restructured over the last few years. We also looked into which airline CEOs owned the most stock of their companies, as well as how many options have been granted over time. ALGT and DAL CEOs are the most “bought in” at $251M and $18M worth of equity (respectively). In this note we focus on how compensation is calculated rather than the absolute dollar amount.
FDX reported F4Q (ending May) EPS of $1.99, above our est. of $1.93 and Cons. of $1.94. This excludes a previously announced one-time $0.26 aircraft write-down.At 12x forward P/E on our prior numbers and FDX’s F13 guidance, we believe FDX’s stock more than reflects expectations for weakening macro demand and seemingly little expectations for a material U.S. restructuring. We continue to favor FDX for its two catalysts—an expected near-term inflection in IP vols and its impending domestic restructuring—that we believe should drive strong upward earnings momentum and margin improvement from Express margins of around 5% currently versus trough levels of 4% and past peak levels approaching 10%.
This week’s Audio Brief examines how much oil, gas, pipe, sand and chemical volumes related to the mining of those shales the rails moved in 2011 and where we expect those volumes to ramp-up to over the next few years. We provide some background on the size of the opportunity for the rails based particularly on what we have seen the past two years out of the Bakken region in North Dakota, which to date has been by far the biggest driver of rail volumes from the different U.S. shale regions. We also touch on the Canadian Oil Sand and Eagle Ford shale opportunities.
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