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Higher costs = lower estimates. Along with its May traffic report Monday morning SAVE provided bullish commentary on demand trends and bearish commentary on costs. SAVE disclosed higher costs across multiple areas of the business, and management cut capacity guidance in 2Q/3Q due to a preventative seat maintenance program. The net impact to our model = lower EPS estimates and a lower target price.
Inside Freight: CSX Export Coal Rates; Hong Kong Airfreight; LTL GRIs; CGI and RRTS Acquisitions; UPS; CP and GWR
CSX posted on its website that it will re-raise its export met coal tariff rates 4% sequentially in 3Q after lowering rates 12% beginning in 2Q. While export rates in 3Q will still be down 8% y/y, this suggests potential for modest upside to our coal yield assumptions for CSX in 2H. Meanwhile, export coal vols at the Port of Hampton Roads, VA increased only 5% y/y in May vs. +35% and +8% the prior 2 months. Total air cargo tonnage reported by HACTL increased 1.5% y/y in May vs. +0.6% and -0.6% the prior 2 months. This marks the best y/y growth in HACTL vols since last March. We continue to believe global airfreight vols have bottomed and suspect the deterioration in y/y IATA vols in April will ultimately prove an anomaly. FedEx Freight announced a 6.9% general rate increase starting July 9th. This is 10bp bigger and nearly 2 months earlier than FDX Freight’s LTL GRI last year. We expect the other public LTLs to follow with similar GRIs the next couple of weeks, and this seems positive for near-term LTL sentiment.
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