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This report is our quarterly analysis of corporate share repurchase and dividend activity. Historically, we’ve found alpha in the stocks of companies returning significant amounts of capital to shareholders and, therefore, this is an area we closely follow.
AAWW’s Analyst Day in NY was well-attended and generally upbeat. Despite global macro uncertainty, mgmt expects a re-acceleration in airfreight demand in 2H:12 and AAWW affirmed its C12 EPS guidance of $5.10+ vs. prior Cons. of $5.22 and $0.51 in 1Q. AAWW also confirmed its prior target of 200K total block hours in C14, implying 15% avg. growth the next 3 years. Airfreight capacity continues to outpace demand, and it seems like a challenging time to place long-term ACMI contracts. Thus, we believe AAWW has high placement risk over the next year, even into bottoming airfreight demand. Yesterday’s -400F placement is positive and reduces some risk for AAWW, but we remain concerned with the lack of new customer demand to date for the -8F.
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