Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
This weekly report presents the most recent views we are hearing from industry insiders and summarizes the research of Wolfe Trahan. Included are (1) key takeaways, selected shipper comments; (2) notices of upcoming industry events; (3) key takeaways from some of our notes from the past week; (4) recent stock performance for our transport universe; (5) updated comparison tables for the airfreight & logistics group, railroads, and trucking; and (6) fuel trends for West Texas Crude Oil, On-highway diesel, Rail diesel, and Jet fuel.
We are updating estimates today to reflect lower projected fuel costs and slightly lower PRASM growth. To be clear: we do not anticipate a weakening demand environment (the Wolfe Trahan PRASM Forecaster is still positively biased), but sharply lower fuel prices simply mean lower international fuel surcharges and a reduced likelihood of low cost domestic carriers participating in industry fare increase initiatives. That’s OK with us and it is still conducive to our bull case for the group, as the net impact is a clear benefit to EPS via higher EBIT margins. We generally don’t advise buying airline stocks based exclusively on lower fuel prices, and this time is no different, so our fundamental theses for the group and each company we cover are unchanged… but our estimates are higher.
Total Week 21 rail vols increased 0.2% y/y vs. +1.0% and -0.2% the prior 2 weeks. Excluding coal, rail vols grew 2.3% y/y, decelerated from +5.0% and +3.6% the last 2 weeks. Total rail vols are now tracking up 0.5% QTD, down modestly from +1.0% in 1Q and compared with our expectations of about +1% for the qtr.
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