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According to published schedule data from OAG filings, AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats, not ASMs) over the next three months (we now look at June-August) is down 2.4% y/y, an incremental 50bp decline from the schedule data from last week. The incremental capacity reductions this week are driven by domestic capacity changes. Domestic capacity is now expected to decline 2.6% y/y (versus -2.0% last week), and Latin capacity is expected to decline 1.0% (versus -0.7% last week). Transatlantic capacity (down 0.8% y/y) and transpacific capacity (down 15.2% y/y) remained unchanged from last week’s read.
Inside Freight: A Deep Dive on Shale Opportunities for the Rails, Part II: Oil and Frac Sand Volumes Even Greater than We Initially Expected
Due to surging oil production in the Bakken shale and limited pipeline capacity to the Gulf, crude oil is increasingly being shipped via rail. Rail crude oil vols more than doubled off a very low base last year, and we expect vols to increase another 4x in C12. Crude oil only makes up around 1% of total rail vols, but oil and shale-related vols are ramping up faster than we expected relative to our last deep dive analysis on crude-by-rail from 7 months ago. CP and BNSF are the only rails with direct access to the Bakken, and oil originating on their lines is interchanged to UNP or KSU for final delivery to the Gulf. The eastern rails have little direct crude oil exposure today, but all the rails are benefiting from rising frac sand demand. Outside of the Bakken, the Canadian rails are best positioned for growth in Alberta oil sands production while UNP and KSU are benefiting from strong growth in Eagle Ford production in TX.
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