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According to published schedule data from OAG filings, AMR’s system-wide capacity (measured by seats, not ASMs) over the next three months (May-July) is down 2.1% y/y, an incremental 50bp decline from the schedule data from last week. The incremental capacity reductions this week are driven by domestic capacity changes.
Ed Wolfe and Scott Group hosted this 45 minute conference call. Key topics on the call include: Trends our of 1Q; What Are Our Surveys Saying About Capacity?; Have Rail Coal Volumes Bottomed in 2Q; Why Were Truck Reports Weaker Than Expected in 1Q?; CHRW & EXPD – Should Investors Look at Either at This Stage of the Cycle?; and Our Favorite Stocks.
We are raising our weighting on the rails again because we see less risk of an earnings miss, the rails are handling historically weak domestic coal vols better than we envisioned, we believe we are closer to a bottom for coal sentiment, and the U.S. Big 3 Public Rails are trading towards the bottom of historical ranges. In recent weeks a bullish USDA grain forecast and plummeting diesel prices also add to the near-term story. We view the sector’s pullback with the market since April 2nd as a great opportunity to increase exposure in the transport sector. The freight transports are over 85% domestic and import driven, with little int’l or export exposure. As a result, the sector has grown y/y earnings well above the market in both 4Q and 1Q. Valuations across the transports remain compelling as forward expectations out of strong 1Q beats remain muted, so the potential for the group to continue to beat expectations continues.
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