Below is our research library, listed in reverse chronological order. Please use the search box to look for research on a specific company or topic, or use the Calendar, Archives, or Sector links at left to browse for research from a specific time period or sector. If you are a Wolfe Trahan client and can not access any of the links in our library, please contact ITSupport@WolfeResearch.com to request our PDF decryption plug-in.
Fuel taketh away, but fuel also giveth. At this point most investors accept the theory that high and volatile fuel prices have acted as a global disciplinarian of irrational capacity growth, which continues to facilitate improving pricing power and a growing abundance of lucrative ancillary revenues. Most large airlines have addressed the need to grow via M&A and trans-border business ventures rather than via “turf invasions” of other airlines that might have slightly higher costs. We expect these trends to continue to improve as long as fuel remains volatile and, importantly, unpredictable.
The U.S. markets are right back where they were a month or so ago after nearly making it to a new cycle high. This volatility, and the change in investor sentiment that accompanies it, is unlike anything we have witnessed in years. It is a strange development to see the S&P 500 off a little over three percent from its cycle highs and investor sentiment sitting near cycle lows! Maybe the events of the past few years have scarred investors so badly that being bullish around volatility has become a thing of the past? The likelier culprit in our opinion is the large decline in the number of companies providing guidance in recent years.
Company guidance to investors was always a beacon to focus on in times of volatility. Things like the French elections or problems at Spanish banks did not have to be major events for equities because there was always something to turn to for a view of the future. The world is different today as only a fraction of companies now provide guidance compared to ten years ago. This leaves investors without a beacon and thus much more sensitive to economic data points or newspaper headlines. Ultimately, it makes for a more volatile backdrop. Combine this with a world more vulnerable to external influences (i.e., inflation) and we have a market reality that is very different than the world we operated in a decade ago. The following report explains this phenomenon in greater detail and discusses the likeliest road ahead in coming quarters. Look out for part 2 of this report tomorrow.
- Coverage List
- Consolidated Research Library
- Airfreight & Surface Transportation Library
- Portfolio Strategy Library
- Quantitative Analysis Library
- Accounting & Tax Policy Library
- Auto & Truck Manufacturing Library
- Airlines Library
- Conference Calls
- Interactive Doh! Models
- Ed Wolfe Bi-Weekly Freight Update
Filter by Ticker
- Chris Senyek
- Ed Wolfe & Scott Group
- Hunter Keay
- Steve Fleishman
- Tim Denoyer