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LCC said March PRASM grew 8% y/y compared to guidance of +6% to +7%, which the company just reiterated on 3/13. We think the month closed strong, implying good close-in bookings from business travelers, as was the case with DAL. LCC also reported a record load factor for the 11th straight month. Yes, this implies LCC might be leaving a bit of yield on the table (this is called “spill”), but we’re comfortable with that considering the demand environment is still somewhat unpredictable… strong, but unpredictable.
The Mar U.S. SAAR of 14.4M was in line with high expectations and still above most full-year expectations, though it was a modest pullback from 15.1M in Feb. Since weather and Japanese OEMs’ fleet sales likely continued to support the SAAR, the April SAAR is likely to drop further, but these factors seem fairly modest and overall industry pricing remained disciplined.
ACT Research reported March prelim Class 8 net orders of 20K, down from 22.4K and 25.3K in Feb and Jan. The March order pace implies annual demand of 230K-235K, and pulls the 3- and 6-month trailing annual order rates down to 262K and 281K.
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